USDJPY counter trend rally underway toward 114.30-50

Technical Analysis:

USDJPY could be progressing into a counter trend rally toward 114.30-50 zone in the next few trading sessions. The currency had dropped from 115.52 highs through 112.50 mark, breaking below initial support at 112.75. Bulls are looking poised to remain in control till 115.52 is intact.

The lower degree counts are suggesting that the drop between 115.52 and 112.50 was in five waves, hence an impulse. Ideally, an impulse wave would be followed by a correction in the opposite direction. The wave structure since 112.50 might produce a corrective rally before finding resistance.

Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop, potential lower degree Wave 1, is passing through 114.37 mark. High probability remains for a bearish turn if prices manage to reach there as counter trend progresses.

If the above proposed structure holds well, USDJPY would first rally towards 114.30-50 terminating its corrective wave. Thereafter, bears might come back in control and drag lower below 112.50 mark as Wave 3 progresses. The instrument is a good case to be sold on rallies, going forward.

Traders might want to take an aggressive long position to take benefit of its counter trend rally towards 114.40. They might reverse positions from 114.40-50 zone, against 115.52.

Prepared by

Finacademy Technical Team